Welcome to Voter Science
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Predictions for Washington State Legislative Races
Several weeks ago, Voter Science produced a set of general election predictions of legislative district candidates coming out of the 2022 primaries. Using a combination of demographic factors and expected voter turnout, we produced these predictions at the individual candidate level. These predictions were shared with a small circle of trusted stakeholders prior to the general election, and we delayed releasing them to a larger audience to avoid an undue influence on legislative contests.
On the afternoon of the election, we released our predictions to the general public. Our original predictions can be accessed by clicking here: 2022 Legislative Race Predictions
Post election, we compared our predictions with candidate level performance. On average, our predictions tended to be highly accurate: the mean prediction error was only 2.5% across 188 candidates.
The final comparison between our predictions and candidate performance can be found here: 2022 Comparison of Voter Science General Predictions and Actuals. Our ability to accurately predict races ahead of time has several applications including resource allocation across multiple races as well as assessing the viability of different candidates to run for office. We will cover potential applications of this ability in a future blog post.
A Different Kind of Political Firm
Voter Science is a political consulting firm that combines sophisticated analytics with technology, digital, and social media to craft and execute winning voter outreach strategies. In short, we make your campaign smarter. Our partners have decades of combined experience in technology and analytics working at companies like Microsoft and Amazon. Their expertise is now available in the political arena.
Strategies the Move the Needle
A client called on Voter Science to help a coalition of businesses and concerned citizens opposed to a ballot initiative to spend billions on a transportation project with little benefit to improve traffic congestion around Puget Sound. Voter Science crafted a machine learning algorithm that was used to target voters with digital mobile ads. Despite being outspent better than 10 to 1, the targeting and outreach coordinated by Voter Science was able to significantly shift voter opposition by more than 25 percentage points over the course of the election cycle.
Solutions that Scale
Voter Science has supported over 1,000 campaigns from gubernatorial and Presidential races down to local city council contests. Our solutions and strategies can scale to meet the needs of any size campaign.
Experience that Matters
The principals and technologists at Voter Science have decades of experience as well as over 40 technology patents working for leading technology companies like Microsoft and Amazon. We fuse data science and technology to super-charge voter outreach and have worked with hundreds of candidates, industry advocacy groups, and ballot initiatives.